DTN Closing Cotton            04/24 13:34

   Cotton Trades Quiet Range

   The cotton market appears to be forming a possible technical low. 

Keith Brown
DTN Contributing Cotton Analyst

   The cotton market appears to be forming a possible technical low. However, 
Wednesday's action was fairly muted, as it occurred within the context of a 
terrific downdraft. The market did see deliveries on the first day of spot 
May's notice period, but the numbers seemed inconsequential.

   Spot May remains in its notice period. Wednesday, that contract had 23 
deliveries tendered against it. The open interest for the May Contract roughly 
stands at 417, with its expiration on May 8.

   On Thursday, at 8:30 a.m. EDT, USDA will issue its weekly export sales 
report. Last week's tabulations showed that current season net sales were 
146,100, up 79%, while shipments were 266,700, off 3% weekly. 

   This Friday, CFTC will update the status of the managed-money funds. Last 
week saw that speculative group had liquidated some 26,000 contracts, reducing 
their net long position to roughly 36,000 contracts. 

   The six-to-ten-day outlook indicates much-above normal temperatures for the 
entirety of the cotton belt. The rain forecast calls for above-normal rain for 
Texas, slightly-above normal for the Delta, and normal for the Southeast. 
Currently, there is virtually no weather premium baked into the market.

   Wednesday, May cotton settled at 79.51 cents, down 0.71 cent, July was 81.01 
cents, minus 0.71 cent, and December finished at 77.69 cents, 0.39 cent lower. 
Wednesday's estimated volume was 20,601 contracts.

   Keith Brown can be reached at commodityconsults@gmail.com




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